IMD Monsoon Forecast 2026 : The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a concerning update on the upcoming monsoon season, stating that rainfall across the country is likely to be below normal at around 90% of the long period average (LPA), with a model error of ±4%. The revised projection is lower than the earlier estimate of 92%, indicating growing uncertainty in seasonal rainfall patterns.
The IMD monsoon forecast 2026 suggests that several regions, particularly Central and South India, may face rainfall deficits during the southwest monsoon season, raising concerns for agriculture, water resources, and power generation.
IMD monsoon forecast 2026 shows below-normal rainfall trend
According to the updated IMD monsoon forecast 2026, rainfall over the monsoon core zone is also expected to remain below normal at less than 94% of LPA. This zone includes major rain-fed agricultural areas, making the forecast particularly significant for the farming sector.
The IMD stated that while Northeast India may receive normal rainfall, most parts of Central, South Peninsular, and Northwest India are likely to experience below-normal monsoon conditions under the IMD monsoon forecast 2026.
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Climate factors influencing IMD monsoon forecast 2026
The IMD noted that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently prevailing, while El Niño conditions are expected to develop during the monsoon season. These factors are known to weaken rainfall activity in India.
Experts said that the IMD monsoon forecast 2026 also reflects the impact of evolving ocean-atmosphere conditions, which may delay or weaken monsoon progression over parts of the country, including Kerala.
Impact on agriculture and water resources
The IMD warned that below-normal rainfall under the IMD monsoon forecast 2026 could significantly affect agriculture, hydropower generation, drinking water supply, and ecosystem stability. Farmers in rain-dependent regions may face increased risks due to irregular rainfall distribution.
Authorities have been advised to adopt water conservation strategies, strengthen drought preparedness, and improve early warning systems to reduce potential damage.
Heatwave alert alongside IMD monsoon forecast 2026
In addition to rainfall concerns, the IMD has also predicted above-normal heatwave days in several states, including Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Bihar, Odisha, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh. Some regions may experience multiple heatwave days in June, increasing health risks and power demand.
The IMD monsoon forecast 2026 also highlights that rising temperatures may impact vulnerable groups such as children, elderly people, and outdoor workers.
The latest IMD monsoon forecast 2026 indicates a challenging weather season ahead for India, with below-normal rainfall and increased heatwave conditions expected in several regions. Authorities and citizens have been advised to stay alert and take precautionary