Crisil Ratings says the Venezuela crisis will not materially impact India’s trade, crude oil prices, or corporate credit risk.

Crisil Ratings does not believe that the US’s actions in Venezuela will significantly affect India’s international commerce or the credit standing of Indian corporations.

The rating agency said in a credit alert on Tuesday that even if there were an escalation that disrupted Venezuela’s crude oil production, it would not likely cause sustained volatility in crude oil prices due to the country’s relatively small share (1.5%) in the global supply, protecting India Inc. from any materially negative impact.

Over the last few days, the price of Brent crude oil has stayed rather steady, just above USD 60 per barrel.

Additionally, less than 0.25 percent of India’s overall imports come from direct commerce with Venezuela.

The main import from Venezuela is crude oil, with India obtaining 1% of its crude oil needs from the South American nation, according to the rating agency.

In actuality, more over 90% of Venezuela’s total imports of Rs 14,000 crore in fiscal 2025 were from crude oil and related items.

“While we do not anticipate any material near-term impact of the Venezuela situation on crude oil prices, investments for increasing crude oil production in Venezuela, which has vast untapped reserves, could boost oil supply globally and lead to softening of crude oil prices over the medium to long term, which could be a positive for India Inc.” India imports nearly 85% of its crude oil requirements, making it vulnerable to shifts in global prices and supply issues.

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In fiscal year 2025, India’s exports to Venezuela amounted to less than Rs 2,000 crore, or less than 0.1% of its overall exports.

Exports cover a wide range of industries, including two-wheelers, ceramics, textiles, and medicines.

In the previous fiscal year, India sent Rs 900 crore worth of pharmaceutical products to Venezuela, which was less than 0.5% of its overall pharmaceutical exports.

Ceramics, textiles, and two-wheelers were not exported in large quantities.

In summary, given their limited exposure, Crisil Ratings does not anticipate any significant effects on the credit profiles of Indian corporations doing business with Venezuelan clients. “That said, we will continue to closely monitor the developments.”

Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela at the time, was taken prisoner by the United States on January 3, 2026.

According to reports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Venezuela has 303 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, or 19% of the world’s total.