India exits Ayni Air Base in Tajikistan amid China-Russia pressure, ending its only overseas military installation and impacting regional strategy.

India has left Ayni, its sole operational overseas airbase in Tajikistan. The Tajik and Indian governments’ agreement to jointly develop and operate Ayni Air Base reportedly expired in 2022 and was not extended. According to reports, the facility had maintenance equipment, a repair facility, and a detachment of Indian Air Force (IAF) helicopters.

According to an Indian Express story, pressure from China and Russia made the Tajikistani authorities hesitant to extend the airbase’s lease.

Ayni base: what is it?

The Soviet-era Ayni airbase is situated close to Tajikistan’s capital, Dushanbe. But as the USSR collapsed, it fell into disrepair, and India was given the task of renovating it as part of a bilateral deal in 2002. According to reports, India spent almost $80 million to upgrade the base.

The Print claims that in 2001–2002, “radical thinkers” in the security establishment and the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) suggested expanding and modernizing the Gissar Military Aerodrome (GMA), also referred to as the Ayni airfield.

The runway was strengthened and extended as part of the improvements to make it suitable for high lift and combat jet aircraft.

What makes Ayni important to India?

No other nation has a functioning Indian military installation abroad.

Any nation’s military installation abroad is essential. It provides access to both the neighboring region and the country it is in. Following the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, India used the Ayni airbase to evacuate its citizens and officials.

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India has only ever temporarily run bases outside of its boundaries during times of war or peacekeeping missions. Indian forces briefly occupied a few Dhaka bases during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War before swiftly closing them down. Once more, temporary installations during the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) operations in Sri Lanka were removed at the conclusion of the operation.

India may be impacted by the withdrawal from Ayni Air Base, especially given its close proximity to the Wakhan corridor. China and Pakistan are both geopolitically interested in this corridor for economic and security reasons.

What effect will it have on India?

India could have gained a stronger strategic edge if it had continued to conduct operations from Ayni during operations such as Sindhu. ThePrint claims that India may strike Tajikistan’s Peshawar. Pakistan’s frontal front with India would have been weakened as a result of being compelled to move resources from its eastern frontiers to its western ones.

Furthermore, the departure of Ayni highlights weaknesses in India’s strategic planning.

India was also able to increase its power in Central Asia because to the Ayni airbase.

“While Russia and China remain dominant, India has an opportunity to expand its role beyond security into economic engagement,” wrote Andrea Stauder, senior analyst at BISI, in a July research on Tajikistan’s regional significance, according to a Newsweek story.