US attack on Venezuela could unlock $1B for Indian oil firms. Stock market sees neutral impact; crude imports may fall, easing India’s oil bill.

New Delhi, India: The US-led move against Venezuela ‘s President Nicolás Maduro is creating a complex scenario for India: while the stock market sees a largely neutral outlook, state-run oil producers could potentially benefit from a billion-dollar windfall.

According to Ankita Pathak, Head of Global Investments at Ionic Asset by Angel One, the geopolitical shift could support weaker oil prices in the long term, aiding US disinflation and benefiting emerging market assets.

Impact on Indian Oil Sector

India’s ONGC Videsh Ltd. appears to be the primary beneficiary. The US-led restructuring of Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) could unlock nearly $1 billion in pending dues for ONGC Videsh, which holds a 40% stake in Venezuela’s San Cristobal field.

Since US sanctions in 2020, production at the field collapsed to 5,000–10,000 barrels per day, and ONGC Videsh has been unable to repatriate ~$536 million in dividends accrued up to 2014, along with similar amounts in subsequent years. Officials said rigs from Gujarat could be deployed to revive output to 80,000–100,000 bpd if sanctions ease.

Other Indian companies, including Oil India Ltd. and Indian Oil Corp. Ltd., could also see benefits from their minority stakes in the Carabobo-1 project, analysts noted.

Impact on India’s Stock Market

While near-term crude supply disruptions may cause price spikes, Pathak noted that longer-term oil prices are likely to remain weaker. This could ease US inflation pressures, enable potential rate cuts, and support emerging market assets, including India’s.

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For Indian stocks specifically:

• ONGC: Recovery of ~$1 billion in dividends and production upside at San Cristobal.

• Reliance Industries: Potential margin benefits from diversified crude sourcing.

• Gold: Acts as a hedge against near-term geopolitical risk.

Impact on India’s Oil Trade

Renewed access to Venezuelan heavy crude could help India diversify its oil sourcing. Since the Ukraine war, India has relied heavily on discounted Russian crude, but Venezuelan barrels could reduce concentration risk and enhance refinery flexibility, according to Nikhil Dubey, senior analyst at Kpler.

Data from GTRI shows that India’s crude imports from Venezuela fell 81.3% to $255.3 million in FY25, with exports standing at $95.3 million. Given these volumes, experts suggest the developments in Venezuela are unlikely to have a meaningful macroeconomic impact on India but could benefit strategic oil portfolios.

Investment Outlook

Market strategists advise a cautious but opportunistic approach. Pathak highlighted that precious metals, especially gold, are likely to remain supported amid geopolitical uncertainty. While near-term volatility is expected, the removal of Venezuela’s political overhang could be constructive for medium-term investments, creating selective opportunities in sectors less exposed to oil price swings.