India – Pakistan tensions may escalate into conflict in 2026, says CFR, citing terror threats, drone strikes, and rapid military acquisitions.

According to a reports, disputes between India and Pakistan have the potential to escalate into an armed confrontation in 2026. Armed conflict has a “moderate likelihood” of having a “moderate impact” on American interests, according to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

According to CFR’s Conflicts to Watch in 2026 study, there is a “moderate likelihood” of a “renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan due to heightened terrorist activity.”

Drone and missile strikes and counterattacks took place during a four-day mini-war between India and Pakistan in May. Following the deaths of 22 civilians in Pahalgam by terrorists supported by Pakistan, India initiated Operation Sindoor to eliminate terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK).

Though Pakistan called for a truce, there have been aggressive statements by its leadership. Even though there hasn’t been a significant terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir since, intelligence reports indicated that more than thirty Pakistani militants were active in the area this winter.

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Both India and Pakistan have escalated the purchase of defense equipment in spite of the ceasefire. Purchases of drones, air-to-air missiles, and guided bombs totaling Rs 79,000 crore were recently approved by India’s Defence Acquisition Council. According to reports, Pakistan has also begun negotiations with China and Turkey to purchase new air defense systems and drones in order to close loopholes discovered during Operation Sindoor.

“The second Trump administration has sought to end many ongoing conflicts, such as those in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Gaza Strip, and Ukraine, as well as between India and Pakistan and Cambodia and Thailand,” according to the paper.

The conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan is a moderate likelihood in 2026: report

Another Pakistani flashpoint is also mentioned in the CFR report. It believes there is a “moderate likelihood” of an armed war between Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2026. A battle of this kind, it claims, would have “low impact” on American interests.

The CFR’s Conflicts to Watch in 2026 study states that “renewed armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, triggered by resurgent cross-border militant attacks” is moderately likely.

The 2,600-kilometer Durand Line, which separates Pakistan from the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, caught fire earlier in October. At least seven spots along the Durand Line saw deadly gunfire exchanges between Afghan and Pakistani forces. While Islamabad insisted that the Taliban government provided sanctuary to terrorists who attacked Kabul, Afghan officials accused Pakistan of bombing the city. In one of the most dramatic increases in violence in recent memory, both sides said they had taken control of and destroyed border posts.

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Since then, Afghanistan and Pakistan’s diplomatic ties have suffered. Pakistan has been disproportionately affected by the severe disruption to bilateral trade. In the meantime, the Taliban government in Afghanistan sought to open up trade and commercial routes with other countries, such as Iran, Turkey, and India.

The report attempts to enlighten American officials about potential conflict flashpoints and guide their activities accordingly. Based on the likelihood that a conflict may expand into armed conflict and the potential impact on American interests, it divides conflicts into three categories: Tier 1, 2, and 3. The likelihood of escalation and impact is evaluated as “high”, “moderate” and “low”.