Unusual absence of Xi Jinping Signals Internal Power Shift in China

Unusual absence of Xi Jinping Signals Internal Power Shift in China

Xi Jinping’s Disappearance Sparks Speculation of Power Shift in China; India Warned of Possible Escalation on LAC

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s sudden and unexplained absence from public events between May 21 and June 5, 2025, has sparked a fresh wave of speculation about an internal power realignment within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Indian intelligence sources, closely monitoring the developments, have raised alarms over a potential spillover of China’s domestic instability along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), especially in Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh.

Silent but Significant: Xi Jinping’s Public Disappearance

While the Chinese state media has offered no official explanation for Xi Jinping’s disappearance, senior intelligence officials suggest that this gap may signify a strategic sidelining of the leader, despite his retention of formal titles such as President and Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC).

According to top intelligence briefings, Xi’s operational authority appears to be eroding quietly, following a historical CCP pattern of neutralizing political rivals without direct removals. “The CCP has done this before—transforming powerful leaders into ceremonial figures without creating headlines,” a senior source noted.

Zhang Youxia Emerges as the New Power Center

At the heart of this emerging power shift is General Zhang Youxia, the First Vice Chairman of the CMC. Backed by senior CCP officials aligned with former President Hu Jintao, Zhang is believed to be exerting real control over military and strategic affairs. This development mirrors past Chinese political tactics, where internal factions consolidate influence subtly to avoid institutional disruptions.

Simultaneously, Wang Yang, a former Politburo Standing Committee member known for his technocratic and reformist approach, is reportedly being groomed as a successor. His emergence signifies a potential shift toward a more pragmatic leadership style, possibly in response to mounting economic and social pressures.

Xi Jinping Thought Fades from Spotlight

Reinforcing these observations is the noticeable reduction in state media references to “Xi Jinping Thought,” a signature ideological campaign under his rule. Instead, media coverage now subtly features senior party members from earlier leadership eras, a likely indicator of shifting internal alliances.

Adding to this are multiple PLA reshuffles, especially within the Western Theatre Command, signaling a shakeup of Xi-loyalist generals. These moves are being interpreted as efforts to consolidate military loyalty under the emerging faction led by Zhang.

India on Alert: LAC Escalation and Cyber Threats Likely

Indian intelligence officials are closely watching the developments in Beijing, citing historical patterns where China externalizes internal political crises through aggression on its borders or through cyber and information warfare.

“We’ve seen this before—during the 2020 pandemic, the 2012 Bo Xilai scandal, and the 2014 anti-corruption purge. When China is unstable inside, it strikes outside,” one senior Indian intelligence official stated.

PLA Reshuffles Signal Possible Action Along LAC

Since late 2024, at least three major command changes have taken place in the PLA’s Western Theatre Command, which oversees India-China border operations. Intelligence assessments suggest these changes could embolden field commanders to demonstrate loyalty through military activity, particularly in Arunachal Pradesh or Ladakh, potentially triggering fresh standoffs or skirmishes.

Cyberattacks and Disinformation Campaigns Expected

Apart from potential border tensions, intelligence inputs also indicate a possible surge in cyberattacks on Indian critical infrastructure, including power grids, financial systems, and strategic communications. China may also amplify disinformation campaigns targeting India’s internal issues to sow discord and project strength amid its own domestic turbulence.

India’s Diplomatic Front May Be Targeted Too

Experts warn that China could resort to blocking Indian initiatives at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and escalating its naval presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) as part of a broader geopolitical push. These moves, while not unprecedented, may increase in frequency and intensity to serve domestic political needs in Beijing.

A Shifting Chessboard: Implications for the Region

The reported internal shift in Chinese leadership dynamics, while still speculative, presents serious regional implications, especially for India. A weakened Xi Jinping could mean a more fragmented CCP, with various factions seeking to prove their nationalist credentials—often through aggressive foreign policy moves.

At the same time, China’s economic troubles, including 15% youth unemployment, a stagnant real estate sector, and failed semiconductor initiatives, have placed added pressure on the leadership to shift public attention outward.

For India, maintaining military readiness, cyber defense vigilance, and diplomatic agility will be key in responding to any escalatory moves from China in the coming months.