Pakistan’s Military Faces Critical Fuel and Ammunition Shortages Amid Rising Tensions with India
As tensions escalate between India and Pakistan following recent cross-border incidents, concerns are mounting over Pakistan’s military readiness. Reports indicate that the Pakistan Armed Forces are grappling with severe shortages of fuel and artillery ammunition, potentially limiting their capacity to sustain high-intensity conflict to just four days.
Acute Fuel and Ammunition Shortages
Multiple sources have reported that Pakistan’s military is experiencing critical shortages of fuel, oil, lubricants, and even food rations. Intelligence intercepts from the Line of Control suggest that Pakistani troops have complained about reduced rations and fuel allocations. Military exercises have been curtailed, and supply lines are stretched thin, weakening operational readiness at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions.
Independent analysts and former military officers estimate that, under current conditions, Pakistan’s fuel and ammunition reserves may last just three to four days in the event of a full-scale conflict. This marks a steep decline from earlier capabilities and is directly linked to the country’s deteriorating fiscal health.
Economic Constraints Impacting Defense Logistics
Pakistan’s economic challenges are exacerbating its military’s logistical constraints. With external debt exceeding $131 billion and foreign-exchange reserves covering only three months of imports, the country’s fragile economy is under significant strain. The conflict risks derailing Pakistan’s $7 billion IMF recovery program and imperiling its access to foreign capital.
The army has been forced to cut back on rations, suspend military exercises, and halt scheduled war games due to fuel shortages. This operational downsizing reflects the broader economic crisis, characterized by high inflation, mounting debt, and dwindling foreign exchange reserves.
Strategic Vulnerabilities and International Concerns
The strategic implications of Pakistan’s logistical shortcomings are significant. Analysts warn that the country’s reliance on early nuclear use as a tactical strategy may escalate conflicts rather than resolve them. Furthermore, Pakistan’s doctrine defaults to asymmetric warfare, which is low-cost but high-risk and strategically fragile in the long term.
International actors, including Russia and Iran, have expressed concern over the escalating hostilities and called for calm. Iran has offered to mediate, while Russian President Vladimir Putin conveyed solidarity with India and condemned the recent terrorist attacks in Kashmir.
Domestic and Regional Implications
The domestic implications for Pakistan are dire. Over 37% of the population already lives in poverty, and more than three million people have been pushed below the poverty line since 2018. A war would trigger mass job losses, accelerate inflation, and push millions more into extreme poverty. Pakistan’s welfare system, already under strain, would likely collapse under wartime pressure.
Agriculture, which contributes 23% to Pakistan’s GDP and supports 68% of the rural population, would be among the first casualties. With India suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, irrigation supplies would fall sharply, threatening crop yields, food supply chains, and rural employment. Compounded by Pakistan’s inadequate water storage infrastructure, any disruption would quickly become catastrophic.
Conclusion
Pakistan’s military preparedness is severely compromised by critical shortages of fuel and ammunition, a situation compounded by the country’s economic instability. As tensions with India rise, these logistical constraints pose significant strategic vulnerabilities. The international community’s concern underscores the urgency of de-escalation to prevent a conflict that neither side can afford.