Arakan Army and Bangladesh Army in ‘Close Contact’ After Maungdaw’s Fall
The recent fall of Maungdaw in Myanmar’s Rakhine State has brought the Arakan Army (AA) and Bangladesh Army into “close contact,” sparking negotiations centered around a safe zone for Rohingya refugees. This shift in the dynamics comes after the Arakan Army successfully captured Maungdaw’s strategic positions in the second week of December, marking a significant milestone in its ongoing conflict with Myanmar’s military junta. These negotiations not only focus on humanitarian concerns but also aim to secure critical supply lines for the Arakan Army’s operations.
The Arakan Army, one of Myanmar’s most formidable ethnic armed groups, has steadily advanced through key regions of Rakhine State in recent months. After intense fighting in Ann, the AA captured the Western Military District Headquarters of the Myanmar Army, underscoring its growing strength.
In a dramatic turn, the AA also took captive two Myanmar generals, Brigadier General Thaung Htun and Brigadier General Kyaw Kyaw Than, further destabilizing the military’s grip on the region. These developments led to increased discussions between military representatives from Bangladesh and the AA, with the Bangladesh Army’s Ramu-headquartered 10th Infantry Division playing a crucial role in facilitating the talks.
Key Objectives: Supply Lines and Rohingya Safe Zone
At the heart of the negotiations is a dual focus: ensuring the safety and security of the AA’s supply lines and establishing a “safe zone” for Rohingya refugees. This zone is meant to offer refuge to those displaced by the ongoing violence in Rakhine State, particularly after the fall of Maungdaw.
Ramu, a sub-district in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar, has emerged as a focal point for these discussions. According to Bangladesh military sources, high-level talks between officials of Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, China, Laos, and Cambodia took place in Bangkok on December 19, where Bangladesh’s Foreign Ministry Adviser Tauhid Hossain proposed a time-bound plan for the safe repatriation of Rohingya refugees. The initiative aimed to ensure that Rohingya, who have lived in refugee camps across Bangladesh, could return to their homeland safely while maintaining a secure environment for both the displaced population and those still residing in Myanmar.
With more than a million Rohingya refugees currently residing in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar, and many more still living in Rakhine State’s Maungdaw and Buthidaung districts, this safe zone proposal could provide relief to those fleeing violence in Myanmar. However, the logistical and political complexities of such an operation make it a highly sensitive issue for all involved parties.
The Strategic Importance of Maungdaw and the Bangladesh-Myanmar Border
The capture of Maungdaw has given the Arakan Army full control over a critical 271-km stretch of the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. Maungdaw lies on the eastern bank of the Naf River, which marks the border between the two countries. This control has allowed the AA to not only disrupt Myanmar’s military presence but also to ensure the movement of supplies and troops across the border.
The Three Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), continues to challenge the Myanmar military’s dominance in Rakhine and neighboring states. Reports suggest that the AA has made significant advances in several towns, including the capture of Ann township, which marks the fall of 14 key towns to the rebel outfit in Rakhine State.
Despite these victories, the Arakan Army still faces challenges in its efforts to expand its control further into strategic towns like Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung, which remain fortified by Myanmar’s junta forces.
Bangladesh’s Position on the Rohingya Safe Zone
Bangladesh has long been a host to the majority of Rohingya refugees who fled Myanmar in 2017 amid brutal military crackdowns. Given the historical context, Dhaka has shown increasing interest in recognizing the Arakan Army’s role in securing its supply lines while leveraging its position to address the Rohingya refugee crisis.
While there has been no official acknowledgment of formal recognition of the Arakan Army by Bangladesh, the recent discussions signal a shift in policy. These negotiations offer a rare opportunity to address both security concerns and humanitarian needs while stabilizing the region. Bangladesh’s military and security officials have emphasized the importance of continuing dialogue with the Arakan Army to secure both the safety of refugees and the stability of supply lines for their operations.
The Path Forward: Ensuring Regional Stability
As the situation evolves, the international community, particularly the United Nations and neighboring countries, will likely play a pivotal role in shaping the future of Rakhine State and the Rohingya population. Bangladesh’s involvement in facilitating negotiations between the Arakan Army and Myanmar’s military could serve as a crucial step towards ensuring peace in the region. However, securing a lasting peace will require continued cooperation between all parties involved, including the Arakan Army, Myanmar’s military, and Bangladesh.
The discussions between the Arakan Army and Bangladesh Army highlight the complexity of the situation in Rakhine State and the broader implications for regional security. As the conflict continues to unfold, the focus on securing the safety of displaced communities and ensuring the stability of key supply lines will be crucial in determining the future course of events in Myanmar and Bangladesh.