15,000 Taliban Fighters March Towards Pakistan: Why is the Taliban Turning on Its Former Patron?
In a stunning escalation, around 15,000 Taliban fighters are reportedly marching towards the Pakistani border in retaliation for a series of Pakistani airstrikes on Afghan soil. This significant development raises serious questions about the once-allied relationship between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban. The escalating tension highlights Pakistan’s growing vulnerability as it grapples with a dual Taliban threat — from both the Afghan Taliban and the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has grown emboldened since the Taliban regained power in Kabul in 2021.
The spark for this conflict began when Pakistan launched airstrikes in the Paktika province of eastern Afghanistan. These airstrikes, targeting alleged TTP hideouts, resulted in the deaths of 46 people, including women and children, according to Taliban officials. The attacks, which used a mix of fighter jets and drones, have been condemned as “barbaric” by the Taliban, with Kabul vowing retaliation.
The Roots of Taliban-Pakistan Relations: From Allies to Adversaries
The evolving relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban, especially after the latter’s return to power in Afghanistan, is complicated. For decades, Pakistan nurtured the Taliban as a strategic asset to counterbalance India and to wield influence in Afghanistan. Islamabad’s intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), played a central role in shaping the Taliban’s rise to power in the 1990s, providing military training and logistical support. At one point, Pakistan was one of only three countries to recognize the Taliban’s regime in Kabul.
This long-standing alliance, however, has recently started to fray. While Pakistan initially celebrated the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul, hoping it would stabilize the region and address cross-border terrorism, things have not turned out as expected. The very forces Pakistan helped create are now threatening its stability. The latest Pakistani airstrikes have pushed the Taliban over the edge, sparking retaliatory actions that threaten to spill over into full-scale conflict.
Why Has the Taliban Turned Against Pakistan?
The Taliban’s response to Pakistani aggression is rooted in a combination of regional dynamics and betrayal. For years, Pakistan used the Taliban as a tool in its broader strategic objectives, particularly against India. However, the return of the Taliban to power in Kabul has led to an uncomfortable realization: Pakistan’s reliance on the Taliban has made it increasingly vulnerable to its own creation.
The Taliban’s ideological shift, from being a proxy force for Pakistan to becoming a regional power in its own right, has altered the balance. The Pakistani military has been increasingly frustrated with the Taliban’s refusal to crack down on the TTP, which operates along the porous Afghanistan-Pakistan border. This failure has led to a rise in terrorist attacks within Pakistan, with the TTP continuing to target Pakistani security forces and civilians. The Pakistani government has accused the Afghan Taliban of allowing the TTP to operate freely, further straining bilateral ties.
The Dual Taliban Threat: TTP and Afghan Taliban
Pakistan now faces a dual Taliban problem. On one side is the TTP, a Pakistan-based group that has been fighting for an Islamic emirate in Pakistan similar to the one the Afghan Taliban established in Kabul. The TTP has grown stronger since the Taliban’s return to power, with many of its fighters seeking refuge in Afghanistan. These fighters often cross the border into Pakistan to conduct attacks, particularly targeting military checkpoints and installations.
On the other side is the Afghan Taliban, the regime in power in Kabul. While the Afghan Taliban is not directly aligned with the TTP, the two groups share common goals and often work tacitly together. Pakistan’s complaint is that the Taliban has not done enough to suppress cross-border terrorism or to address the TTP’s growing influence in the region.
The consequences of this dual threat have been dire for Pakistan. According to the Islamabad-based Center for Research and Security Studies, there was a 56% rise in fatalities from terrorist attacks in Pakistan in 2023 compared to the previous year. Over 1,500 people, including 500 security personnel, have been killed in these attacks, and the situation is expected to worsen unless both the Afghan Taliban and TTP are dealt with decisively.
The TTP’s Rise and Its Impact on Pakistan
The rise of the TTP has been directly linked to the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan. While Pakistan had hoped the Taliban would control TTP activities, the reality has been quite different. The TTP has been emboldened by the Taliban’s success and has increasingly targeted Pakistani security forces, causing a surge in attacks.
The latest attack by the TTP on a Pakistani military checkpoint, which resulted in the deaths of 16 soldiers, illustrates the increasing threat posed by the group. Islamabad’s frustration with Kabul’s lack of action against the TTP has been one of the primary reasons for the recent airstrikes in Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s Long Game: The Backfire of Supporting the Taliban
Pakistan’s long-standing strategy of supporting the Taliban as a tool to counter India and exert influence in Afghanistan has now come back to haunt it. The country’s “strategic depth” approach, which included fostering ties with extremist groups like the Taliban, has created a volatile situation that threatens Pakistan’s own security.
The recent airstrikes, and the resulting Taliban retaliation, underscore the risks of nurturing militant groups for short-term political gains. As Hillary Clinton famously stated in 2011, “You can’t keep snakes in your backyard and expect them to only bite your neighbors.” In many ways, this prophecy has come true, with the Taliban now turning against its former patron, Pakistan.
Conclusion: The Unraveling of a Strategic Alliance
The escalating conflict between Pakistan and the Taliban is a direct consequence of Pakistan’s long history of supporting radical groups as part of its foreign policy strategy. While the Taliban’s rise to power in Kabul initially seemed like a victory for Pakistan, the country now faces a far more complex and dangerous situation. With both the Afghan Taliban and the TTP challenging Pakistan’s security, the country must confront the consequences of its past actions.
As 15,000 Taliban fighters march towards the border, Pakistan is left to deal with the Frankenstein’s monster it helped create. The once-strong alliance between Islamabad and Kabul is now a distant memory, replaced by rising tensions and mutual distrust. How this situation evolves will significantly impact regional stability in the coming years.